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Week 3 NFL betting specials: Longshot props and specials
Can Rashid Shaheed have another huge play? What are the odds for George Pickens to exceed 100 receiving yards?
One of the prominent storylines in the NFL through two weeks of the 2024 NFL season is the decline of the passing game. While some teams are still producing through the air, numbers are down across the board, often leading to more modest scoring outputs and fewer big plays each Sunday. However, opportunity can emerge from anywhere in the NFL betting market, and exploiting price holes on longshot wagers is one way to find value.
To that end, we’ll explore some props and specials currently priced at +750 or better, aiming to find value. Here is a glance at three appetizing wagers available in the market:
Rashid Shaheed to score a touchdown from at least 50 yards (+750, DraftKings)
Through two weeks, the New Orleans Saints have basically been the greatest show on turf. The Saints put up 47 points against the Carolina Panthers before following it up with 44 points (and 35 first-half points) against the Dallas Cowboys in Arlington. Those numbers are not sustainable for any offense, but the Saints have a new offensive system that is firing on all cylinders. Rashid Shaheed is a big part of that with his upside to make explosive plays.
Shaheed has a catch of at least 59 yards in each of the first two weeks. Last season, he had six games in which he caught a pass of at least 39 yards. Obviously, 50-yard touchdowns aren’t common, but he is the No. 1 big-play threat for New Orleans. Moreover, the Saints are facing an Eagles defense that allowed a 41-yard breakaway touchdown to Darnell Mooney on Monday night and a 70-yard touchdown to Jayden Reed in Week 1. Philadelphia has questions at all levels of its defense, and the Saints will take at least one shot to Shaheed along the way. We’re betting that they will connect on that deep shot often enough to justify the +750 price tag at DraftKings.
Jerome Ford to score multiple touchdowns (+900, FanDuel)
Ford saw a decrease in overall workload against Jacksonville a week ago, which might account for the uptick in this price. He was clearly the best running back for Cleveland in that matchup, however, racking up more than 9 yards per carry and appearing dynamic on a play-by-play basis. Given that Ford has only one touchdown in two games, this is priced as a longshot at FanDuel Sportsbook, but the combination of talent and matchup is enticing.
Cleveland is not going to abandon its running game, given the modest production from quarterback Deshaun Watson. The game script was unfavorable in the opener against Dallas, but he faces a much better matchup against New York. The Giants’ defense is porous, opening the door to ceiling outcomes. The Giants are coming off a Week 2 game in which they allowed more than 210 rushing yards to the Washington Commanders with little resistance up front. New York has allowed only one rushing touchdown this season but, in 2023, the Giants were No. 30 in the league in giving up 24 rushing scores. Ford would also be valuable in the anytime touchdown market, but he is in play for two (or more) touchdowns against New York.
George Pickens to produce at least 100 receiving yards (+800, DraftKings)
On the surface, this is priced in longshot form for a reason. The Steelers are No. 30 in the NFL in passing yards this season, averaging fewer than 125 per game as the running game takes center stage. Pickens does lead the team in receiving by a comfortable margin, but he is coming off a performance in which he caught only two passes for 29 yards in a win over Denver. On the other side, the Chargers have allowed fewer than 150 passing yards per game and only 4.5 net yards per pass attempt. Los Angeles is unquestionably playing well on defense, which only raises the price even more. With that said, Pickens is an explosive player with tangible upside.
He exceeded 100 receiving yards on five occasions last season and led all qualified NFL players in averaging 18.1 yards per reception. The Steelers might have a modest passing game in the aggregate with Justin Fields at the helm, but Los Angeles projects to load up against the run and at least encourage Pittsburgh to put the ball in the air. Fields is not elite when it comes to passing precision, but he has a big arm and Pickens should command a couple of deep targets. The Chargers also have inflated defensive numbers after facing the hapless Carolina Panthers offense in Week 2, and this bet would be a positive value at a significantly lower price.